London: Omdia forecasts that quantum computing vendors will see their global revenue rise from $942 million in 2022 to $22 billion in 2032, for a compound annual growth rate of 57.7% over this ten-year period. North America and Europe are expected to be the leading regional markets, with Asia & Oceania a close third. Cloud-based access services will make up the largest share of revenue, followed by hardware, consulting, and software. Omdia also believes 2027 will be a key inflection point in the market, and that the chances of a “quantum winter” are very small (less than 1%).
Near term, Omdia believes examples of “quantum commercial advantage” – in which a quantum computer supplies a measurable advantage in speed, cost, quality, or efficiency over the typical classical alternative for a problem of commercial interest – will grow steadily. By 2027, enough of these examples will be clear across enough verticals and industries that adopters will shift from “experimenting with quantum computing” to “deploying quantum computing for operational needs.”
“Achieving fault-tolerant scaled quantum computing would help humanity solve key challenges related to climate change, developing new pharmaceuticals and materials, and bringing important advances to artificial intelligence.” says Sam Lucero, Chief Analyst for Quantum Computing at Omdia. “But the industry has a long road to fully achieving this goal.”
Recently, concerns have grown about the possibility of a “quantum winter”. However, Omdia notes several factors protecting against such a downturn, including growing investments in vendors, strong government support, diverse technology options, and steady technology advancements by vendors.
“While a ‘quantum winter’ is possible,” says Lucero “the chance of it happening is far outweighed by the likelihood of continued steady progress towards fault-tolerant, scaled quantum computers.”
Omdia published its annual quantum computing market forecast report in April 2023.
