New research from Omdia predicts a challenging 2024, with overall games revenue across software, hardware, and advertising staying flat at $249bn. Despite this, Omdia remains optimistic about the industry’s long-term prospects, anticipating a resurgence in growth from 2025 onwards.
The plateau in 2024 starkly contrasts with the explosive pandemic-induced growth seen in recent years. However, it aligns with an expected adjustment period as the industry recalibrates following an unprecedented growth spurt. There is optimism on the horizon, with the games market expected to reach $304bn in 2028, according to the Total Games Market Value Dashboard, which aggregates Omdia’s extensive games forecast data and provides a comprehensive view of the global landscape.
The subdued growth projections for 2024 can be attributed to multiple factors, including the absence of high-value blockbuster releases, sales of dedicated games hardware tapering off (as PS5 and Xbox Series enter the decline phase of their lifecycle), and general inflationary pressures impacting consumer spending.
Mobile in-game advertising acts as a stabilizing force in 2024, preventing an overall market decline. It is poised to continue driving the total market with strong double-digit year-on-year growth projected throughout the forecast period. Highlighting its increasing significance, advertising’s share of the total market is expected to rise from 18% in 2024 to 27% in 2028.
Within this period, games subscriptions will represent approximately 10% of total consumer spend on games, with gradual growth expected. However, they are not predicted to dominate the industry in the same way that they do in music and video. Additionally, while full-game sales revenues will fluctuate significantly based on major releases and console launches, microtransactions and DLC revenues are forecast to grow reliably, albeit slowly.
“Looking ahead, we anticipate a resurgence in growth from 2025 onwards thanks to the revitalized slate of blockbuster titles (including GTA VI), Nintendo beginning a new console cycle, as well as continued strong growth of in-game advertising,” commented George Jijiashvili, Senior Principal Analyst at Omdia. “Meanwhile, the growth in mobile games will be driven by its return to pre-pandemic growth trends, coupled with an improved macroeconomic outlook,” added Jijiashvili.
