The non-farm payroll (NFP) report for July 2024, set to be released on 02 August, is expected to show 190,000 job additions, above consensus expectations of 175,000 but below last month’s reading of 206,000 job additions, according to GlobalData, a leading data and analytics company.
GlobalData’s Jobs indices are derived from high frequency company job postings dataset, available in near real-time and well suited to detect labor market trends.
Adarsh Jain, CFA, Director of Financial Markets at GlobalData, comments: “GlobalData’s lead indicator for NFP data is the company’s posted jobs index, which continues to weaken and has registered a record fall of 10% month-on-month in July 2024. The NFP data is reflecting this trend, with 3-month average payroll additions in June 2024 going below 200,000 for the first time in four years.”
Jain adds: “The key driver of the US jobs market is demand for human capital at companies, proxied by job vacancies listed on company career pages, which is slowing down. Most of the slowdown is stemming from the technology, retail, and pharma sectors, reversing the healthy job gains seen in these sectors in the past.”
Jain concludes: “GlobalData’s proprietary jobs data has been giving lead indications of a slowing US jobs market since April 2024, which is playing out now. The latest NFP release should conclusively nudge the US Fed for a September rate cut.”
