Ericsson Mobility Report: early movers pursue performance-based business models

While the rate of mobile network traffic data growth is declining – estimated at 21 percent year-on year for 2024 – it is still expected to grow almost three-fold by the end of 2030 from present day numbers.

The report highlights how early-mover service providers are already offering value delivery models based on differentiated connectivity – guaranteed uninterrupted high-end connectivity when you need it most – to create new monetization and growth opportunities. Related case studies from T-Mobile in the U.S. and Elisa in Finland are included.

Fredrik Jejdling, Executive Vice President, Head of Business Area Networks, Ericsson, says: “Service differentiation and performance-based opportunities are crucial as our industry evolves. This is highlighted in the November 2024 Ericsson Mobility Report, which includes detailed analysis, statistical insights, and customer use cases. The shift towards high-performing programmable networks, enabled by openness and cloud, will empower service providers to offer and charge for services based on the value delivered, not merely data volume. This report offers valuable insights into what our industry can achieve and the steps necessary to get there.”

The report underlines the global potential for differentiated connectivity development by highlighting that, beyond China, 5G mid-band is currently only deployed at about 30 percent of sites globally.

Of about 320 CSPs currently offering commercial 5G services, less than 20 percent are 5G SA. The densification of mid-band and 5G SA sites is seen as a key catalyst to capitalize on the full potential of 5G, including programmable and intelligent network capabilities.

Almost 60 percent of the 6.3 billion global 5G subscriptions forecast by the end of 2030 are expected to be 5G Standalone (SA) subscriptions.

On global mobile data traffic, 5G networks are expected to carry about 80 percent of total mobile data traffic by the end of 2030 – compared to 34 percent by the end of 2024.

Fixed Wireless Access (FWA) continues to grow in popularity globally as the second largest 5G use case after enhanced Mobile Broadband (eMBB).

In four out of six regions, more than 80 percent of CSPs now offer FWA. The number of FWA service providers offering speed-based tariff plans – with downlink and uplink data parameters similar to cable or fiber offerings – has increased from 30 percent to 43 percent in the last year alone.

Western Europe has witnessed rapid growth in FWA speed-based offerings with 52 percent of CSPs in the region now doing so compared to 32 percent a year ago. Europe alone accounts for 73 percent of all 5G FWA launches globally in the past 12 months.

Of the 350 million projected global FWA connections by the end of 2030, almost 80 percent are forecast to be over 5G.

The report also addresses how AI, including Generative AI Applications – already integrated across smartphones, laptops, watches and FWA products – could impact uplink and downlink network traffic, driving potential mobile traffic growth beyond current baseline predictions.

Other featured report statistics include the projection that global 5G subscriptions are expected to reach almost 2.3 billion by the end of 2024, amounting to 25 percent of all global mobile subscriptions. 5G subscription numbers are expected to overtake the global number of 4G subscriptions during 2027.

The first 6G deployments are expected in 2030, building on and scaling the capabilities of 5G SA and 5G Advanced.

The 40-page report includes three case study articles:

• T-Mobile takes network slicing from pilots to real-world scenarios (with T-Mobile in the U.S. About network slicing use cases.)
• Premium FWA services enabled in Finland with 5G SA (with Elisa in Finland. About Elisa’s 5G SA FWA offering.)
• A multi-New Radio (NR) carrier strategy for best performance (with stc in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA).

Read the full November 2024 Ericsson Mobility Report via this link.