ICMR Sero surveys expected to be published this week in ‘Indian Journal of Medical Research’ after being subjected to two rounds of peer reviews: DG, ICMR
The number of tests conducted so far has crossed 3.68 crores. At the same time, the recovery rate has become more than 75.92%, while active cases are only 22.2% of total cases. In the last 24 hours, the number of active cases came down by 6,400. Recovered patients are now more than 24 lakh, while the number active patients stand at 7,04,348, as on date. This apart, death percentage is at 1.84%, which is one of the lowest in the world. This has been informed by Rajesh Bhushan, Health Secretary, while briefing media persons on the actions taken, preparedness and updates on COVID-19, at National Media Centre in New Delhi today. The Health Secretary also informed, “The rate of increase of active cases, on a day-on-day as well as week-on-week basis, shows a declining graph”.
Explaining in detail, Bhushan stated, enhanced testing infrastructure is leading to rise in tests. “We, at the level of Health Ministry monitor the positivity rate on a day-to-day as well as on a 7-day rolling average basis. This apart, cumulative positivity rate on basis of the tests conducted so far is also monitored”, he informed. As on August 13, the positivity rate was 8.93% when cumulative testing was around 2.68 crore. But, as on date, when the cumulative testing figure has increased to 3.6 crore, the positivity rate has decreased to 8.6%. Similarly, the positivity rate recorded on the basis of seven-day rolling average was 11% in the first week of August. It has now come down as on date to 8% (7-day rolling average). “While the number of tests has increased exponentially, there has been a steady decline in the positivity rate”, stated the Health Secretary.
This apart, tests per million per day is also continuously rising. “We have to keep in mind the population of the country which is the second-highest in the world. This becomes a factor while increasing tests per million population. It is easy to increase tests per million in countries having a smaller population. But, in countries like India a lot of challenges arise in this work”, stated Bhushan.
A study of the critical cases show 2.70% patients are on oxygen support, 1.92% are in ICU, while 0.29% patients are on ventilator support, out of the total active cases. This apart, analysis of deaths show, 51% of deaths occurred in 60 years and above age group, 36% deaths in the 45-60 years age group, 11% between 26-44 years, 1% in 18-25 years age group and 1% COVID-19 related deaths occurred to those aged below 17. These data, as presented by the Health Secretary, again points out that people with comorbidities and elderly are at high risk. An analysis on the basis of gender shows 31% of the deaths occurred to female patients, while 69% to males.
Stating as to how testing has been increased in a calibrated manner, DG, ICMR Prof (Dr.) Balram Bhargava informed, “In the first phase, COVID-19 was an urban phenomena which occurred in large cities with international airports and hence labs for RT-PCR tests, which is still a gold standard, were set up. In the second phase, at the district level, some RT-PCR labs were set up along with repurposing of the TRUENAT and CBNAAT tests originally meant for tuberculosis and the Abbott machines originally meant for HIV-AIDs. In the third phase, at the field level, antigen tests having moderate to high sensitivity and very high specificity were deployed for the purpose of COVID-19 testing”.
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