The total telecom and pay-TV services revenue in India is expected to increase at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 2.5% from $44.9 billion in 2024 to $50.7 billion in 2029, primarily driven by mobile data and fixed broadband segment, forecasts GlobalData, a leading data and analytics company.
GlobalData’s India Telecom Operators Country Intelligence Report reveals that mobile voice service revenues will decline during the forecast period due to a steady decrease in mobile voice service ARPU, with users increasingly shifting to OTT communication platforms.
Mobile data service revenues, on the other hand, will continue to increase at a healthy CAGR of 5.5% over the forecast period, driven by the continued rise in smartphone adoption, growing mobile internet subscriptions, and increasing consumption of mobile data services on the back of expanding 4G subscriber base and projected rise in the adoption of higher ARPU-5G services.
Srikanth Vaidya, Telecom Analyst at GlobalData, says: “4G is the leading mobile technology by subscriber base in India, accounting for 68.9% of total mobile subscriptions registered in 2024. However, this share is expected to decline to 32.1% in 2029, due largely to subscriber migration to high-speed 5G services.
“5G services, on the other hand, accounted for 15% of total mobile subscriptions in 2024, which will increase to 61.8% in 2029, driven by ongoing 5G network expansions by mobile operators. For instance, Airtel’s 5G network reached 140,000 villages as of September 2024. Reliance Jio, on the other hand, has completed its 5G rollout with 100% nationwide coverage, as of August 2024.”
In the fixed communication services segment, fixed voice service revenues will decline over the forecast period due to steady losses in circuit-switched subscriptions and declining fixed voice ARPU. Fixed broadband service revenues, on the other hand, will increase at a CAGR of 6.2% over the 2024-29 period in line with the steady rise in fixed broadband subscriptions, particularly over FTTH/B access lines.
Vaidya adds: “Growing demand for and increasing availability of higher-speed fiber broadband connectivity on the back of the government’s efforts to expand fiber network infrastructure across the country will drive the adoption of fiber broadband services over the forecast period. For instance, The Phase III of the BharatNet, worth INR650 billion ($7.8 billion) is expected to start in near term with an aim to improve fiber broadband connectivity in rural areas across the country.”
Following its launch by operators Jio and Airtel in late 2023, 5G Fixed Wireless Access (FWA) service is expected to complement the existing fixed broadband infrastructure and drive broadband service adoption further in the country.
Pay-TV service revenues in the country will decline over the forecast period due to the continued drop in cable TV, DTH, and IPTV subscriptions and falling pay-TV ARPU levels as a result of the ongoing user migration to OTT-based video service platforms.
Vaidya concludes: “Reliance Jio led the mobile services segment, in terms of subscriptions in 2024, followed by Airtel India. The company’s extensive 4G network coverage, and 5G network developments will enable the company to retain its dominance in the Indian mobile market. Launched in October 2022, Reliance Jio’s 5G services achieved 100% national coverage in December 2023, supported by the deployment of 1 million 5G cells.
“The operator also leads the country’s fixed broadband services market in terms of subscriptions, supported by its strong position in the growing fiber broadband services segment and efforts to expand its JioFiber network.”
