I’ve been using Linux since before it was cool. Back then, Linux was so obscure that it didn’t even register on any market share metric. Since then, it’s grown at such a snail’s crawl pace that it gave everyone all the doubt they needed that Linux would ever be taken seriously.
That’s why when StatCounter reported that Linux had reached a 4.45% market share for global desktop operating systems in July, those of us who’ve been championing Linux for all these years raised up a mighty “Huzzah!” in celebration.
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Anyone who follows such trends is probably laughing at such a low percentage, but for those who’ve been using Linux since the early days, that number represents a clear indicator of things to come.
If you look at the past year (from July 2023 to July 2024), you see that Linux started at 3.12%, saw a fairly steady climb up (with just a few small dips on the way), and it wasn’t until February that it finally broke 4% (at 4.03). This upward trend should continue and is most likely powered by users becoming disheartened by the Windows OS (and the looming end of support for Windows 10) and the rising cost of Apple hardware.
It’s also impossible to ignore Steam Deck’s role in this. Steam Deck is a handheld gaming device that is powered by Linux. That, along with the increased user-friendliness of Steam on Linux, has led to the rising number of games that can be played on the open-source operating system. Many of us have believed (for years) that games would be key to furthering Linux adoption on the desktop.
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Should this trend continue, it’s not a stretch to believe Linux will finally break the 5% mark before the end of the year (especially when the holidays arrive and more Steam Decks are purchased).
Another thing to remember is that tracking Linux market share isn’t quite as simple as it seems. Stat Counter collects data through website trackers. Many Linux users are very privacy-centric, so hundreds of thousands of Linux instances could go undetected because users have adopted anti-tracking measures.
And considering that Linux has more than double the market share of Chrome OS, it’s not a stretch to believe Linux will continue climbing.
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I would not be surprised if Linux finally catches up to MacOS by the end of 2025, especially given the MacOS market share continues on a downward trajectory, peaking at 21.01% in November 2023 and dropping to a surprising 14.92% in July 2024. Linux’s trajectory might be slow, but it’s been fairly steady, so keep watching those numbers, and you might find yourself shocked sometime around Q3 of 2025.
Mark my words.
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