The total mobile services revenue in China is poised to increase from $139.2 billion in 2024 to $157.3 billion in 2029 at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 2.5%, mainly driven by healthy growth in mobile data services segment, reveals GlobalData, a leading data and analytics company.
GlobalData’s research reveals that growth in mobile data service revenues will offset the decline in mobile voice service revenues during the forecast period. While mobile voice service revenue will decline at a CAGR of 10.4% between 2024 and 2029, mobile data revenue will increase at a CAGR of 5.2% over the same period, primarily driven by the increasing adoption of higher average revenue per user (ARPU) 5G services.
Srikanth Vaidya, Telecom Analyst at GlobalData, says: “The average monthly mobile data usage in China is expected to increase from 15.2 GB in 2024 to 28.3 GB in 2029, driven by the growing consumption of online video and social media content over smartphones, thanks to the widespread availability of 5G services.”
GlobalData is optimistic about the country’s mobile broadband services outlook with 5G services leading the way. 5G subscriptions are estimated to account for 89.6% of the total mobile subscriptions in 2029, driven by the ongoing 5G network expansion and modernization efforts of the operators. For instance, China Mobile has commercially deployed 5G-A network in more than 280 cities till June 2024, with the goal of establishing the world’s largest 5G commercial network.
Government’s policies and initiatives for promoting 5G adoption in the industrial sector will also lend traction to the 5G market in the country. For instance, MIIT, China’s telecom regulator had announced to develop more than 10,000 5G factories to drive industrial applications of 5G, particularly in manufacturing.
The advancements in 5G technology will also drive robust growth in M2M/IoT subscriptions, which are expected to increase at a CAGR of 13.3% over the period 2024 to 2029.
Vaidya concludes: “China Mobile will retain its leading position through 2029, supported by its ongoing 5G network expansions to cater to the rising demand for high-speed services by residential and enterprise segments. Till June 2024, the operator deployed over 2.29 million 5G base stations, including 705,000 700MHz 5G base stations. China Mobile had invested about CNY31.4 billion ($4.3 billion) on 5G infrastructure in H1 2024, of the total CNY173 billion ($23.8 billion) planned for the entire year.”
