Japan’s mobile service revenue is poised to increase at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 3.5% from $52.7 billion in 2023 to $62.6 billion in 2028, mainly supported by the mobile data service segment, forecasts GlobalData, a leading data and analytics company.
GlobalData’s Japan Mobile Broadband Forecast (Q1-2024) reveals that mobile voice service revenue will decline at a 7% CAGR over the forecast period due to the widespread consumer shift towards over-the-top (OTT) communication platforms and the subsequent decline in voice average revenue per user (ARPU) levels.
Mobile data service revenue, on the other hand, will increase at a CAGR of 5.7% between 2023 and 2028, driven by the continued rise in smartphone subscriptions and growing consumption of data services over high-speed wireless networks especially with increasing adoption of higher-ARPU yielding-5G services.
Hrushikesh Mahananda, Telecom Research Analyst at GlobalData, comments: “The average monthly data usage over mobile networks is forecast to increase from 11.9GB in 2023 to 27.5GB in 2028, driven by the increasing consumption of online video and social media content over smartphones, on the back of the growing availability and adoption of 5G services and the data-centric packages offered by MNOs.”
4G accounted for the largest share of mobile subscriptions in the country until 2023. 5G subscriptions will surpass 4G subscriptions in 2024 and go on to account for 87% share of the total mobile subscriptions in 2028, driven by wide availability and affordability of 5G service plans.
Mahananda concludes: “NTT Docomo will lead the mobile services market in terms of subscriptions through 2028 given its strong focus on 5G network expansion across the country as it aims to expand its 5G coverage to 97% of the population by 2024. Moreover, the operator is offering family discounted 5G plans to drive subscriber growth.”
