“At a time of great uncertainty and great challenges across the five boroughs, New York City voters are coalescing around the more ideologically moderate candidates in the race for mayor,” said George Fontas, Founder and CEO of Fontas Advisors, a leading NYC-based government affairs consultancy. “Our poll shows Eric Adams and Kathryn Garcia both have strong momentum as we enter the final stretch.”
“In a sharp contrast to all our prior surveys, a majority of New York City voters are now aware of each of the major candidates running in the Democrat primary,” said Adam Rosenblatt, President of Core Decision Analytics (CODA), a non-partisan national public opinion research and analytics firm based in Washington, DC. “With the campaigns now in full swing, the impact of paid media and earned media has significantly boosted certain candidates and has altered the state of the race.”
The full survey results, including complete question wording, all questions asked, as well as demographics and screening criteria, is publicly available at PulseOfThePrimary.com.
This third Fontas/CODA Pulse of the Primary poll, conducted nearly one-month prior to the primary, found that voter attention regarding the election has significantly increased:
- 72% say they have heard, read or seen either “a lot”, “some”, or “just a little” about ranked choice voting recently. This is a major increase compared to March, where only 57% said the same.
Beyond rising awareness of ranked choice, familiarity with the mayoral candidates has also increased. Similar to March, three of the eight candidates remain better known among NYC voters:
- 89% are familiar with Andrew Yang (+4 compared to 85% in March)
- 77% are familiar with Scott Stringer (+13 compared to 64% in March)
- 75% are familiar with Eric Adams (+13 compared to 62% in March)
Compared to the March Fontas/CODA poll, the most noticeable awareness gains (“have you heard of…”) have been realized by Kathryn Garcia, Ray McGuire, Dianne Morales, and Shaun Donovan.
- +26 for Kathryn Garcia (55% familiar in May, compared to 29% in March)
- +24 for Ray McGuire (62% familiar in May, compared to 38% in March)
- +24 for Dianne Morales (51% familiar in May, compared to 27% in March)
- +21 for Shaun Donovan (65% familiar in May, +21 compared to 44% in March)
All eight candidates assessed throughout the Pulse of the Primary series are now a familiar name to a majority of voters. This is a sharp contrast to the first Fontas/CODA poll conducted in January, which found that voters were only familiar with three of the eight contenders: Yang, Stringer, and Adams.
With the election less than a month away, the third and final Fontas/CODA poll closely assessed the current state of the mayor’s race. Key findings include:
- Eric Adams has solidified his spot in the top tier – if not the top spot: Nearly one in five voters (18%) say they would pick Eric Adams if the election were held today. Adams’ standing is 5 percentage points higher than his next closest competitor. Eric Adams’ 18% represents both 13% who say they would “definitely” or “probably” vote for him as first choice plus an additional 5% attained from those who say they are undecided but “lean towards” Adams. Of those who say “definitely” or “probably”, Adams gained +3 percentage points since the last Fontas/CODA poll (13% in May vs. 10% in March).
- Kathryn Garcia has surged into the top tier and stands tied with Andrew Yang. Yang and Garcia are statistically tied: 13% of voters say they would choose Andrew Yang (8% “definitely” or “probably” + 5% “lean towards”) while 11% say they would choose Kathryn Garcia (8% “definitely” or “probably” + 3% “lean towards”). In terms of those who say “definitely” or “probably”, Garcia’s support has quadrupled: 8% in May compared to 2% in March. By contrast, the percentage who say “definitely” or “probably” Yang has eroded from 16% in March to 8% in May.
- A significant percentage of the electorate remains uncommitted, though many “leaners”: When presented with the eight candidates, half of voters pick a first choice, though half (50%) state they are “undecided” – a finding similar to the March Fontas/CODA poll. For that reason, the May Fontas/CODA poll included a follow-up question asked of undecided voters: “...which candidate – if any – do you lean towards?” 49% of the “undecideds” in fact lean towards a particular candidate, while 51% indicated no preference (in other words, “true undecided”). Taken as a whole, this means the “true undecideds” is closer to 26% of the total electorate.
“The importance of ranked choice cannot be understated since none of the candidates appear anywhere near a 50% majority necessary to win outright,” said Rosenblatt. “Our polling shows that awareness of ranked choice voting has steadily increased, though the biggest open question is not the simple one about who they might rank – but rather, whether they rank at all and if so, how many.”
“Look for top tier candidates to try and form alliances with other candidates as a strategy to strengthen their lead and secure a high ranking on as many ballots as possible” said Fontas. “In a race this close, an endorsement from a rival campaign may in fact be the deciding factor of who wins this election.”
The Fontas/CODA Pulse of the Primary poll is a three-part series of poll results and analysis leading up to the NYC Democratic primary. Sponsored by Fontas Advisors, these polls are independent and not affiliated with any candidate campaign nor any independent expenditure effort for or against a particular candidate. Visit PulseOfThePrimary.com for the latest poll reports, analysis, and to subscribe to receive updates.
Methodology
On behalf of Fontas Advisors, Core Decision Analytics (CODA) conducted N=800 live telephone interviews (landline and cell) among New York City Democratic primary likely voters from May 15-19, 2021. The overall margin of error is +/-3.46% at the 95% confidence interval. Tracked findings referenced reflect prior Fontas/CODA Pulse of the Primary studies among NYC Democratic primary likely voters conducted in March (N=800 telephone interviews, fielded Mar 15-18) and January (N=842 online interviews, fielded Jan 20-25). The complete poll report, including all survey questions, screening criteria, and demographics, are available at PulseOfThePrimary.com
About Fontas Advisors
Fontas Advisors is a boutique government affairs consultancy focused on the New York metropolitan area. Leveraging our strong knowledge of city and state administrations combined with our robust network honed over decades of experience, we drive results by serving the next-generation needs of corporations, nonprofits, and trade associations. Learn more at fontasadvisors.com
About Core Decision Analytics
Core Decision Analytics (CODA) provides actionable opinion insights and cutting-edge data analytics programs grounded in trustworthy quantitative, qualitative, and advanced analytics methods. CODA leverages decades of experience in over 20 countries on behalf of governments, campaigns, business organizations, associations, and corporate clients. Learn more at coredecision.com
SOURCE Pulse of the Primary
