Milan— The scenarios of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) suggest how, to limit global warming, carbon dioxide removal (CDR), i.e. the process of capturing and removing carbon dioxide capable of retaining emissions in a lasting (from 100 to over 1000 years), you play an essential role.
The new study from Boston Consulting Group (BCG) entitled “Scaling CDR: Demand Drivers for Durable Carbon Removal“ finds how CDR purchases have grown exponentially in recent years, going from 600 kilotonnes (kt) in 2022 to 4.5 megatonnes (Mt) purchased in 2023, with further growth forecasts to 2040, when they will reach between 60 and 750 megatonnes per year. However, we are still far from the amount needed to achieve zero impact on the environment, since, according to estimates, we will not be able to reduce between 6 and 10 gigatonnes (Gt) of CO2 emissions per year globally by 2050.
Demand for RDF must therefore increase significantly to a multi-gigaton scale by 2050 and this will not be possible without government action. New regulatory and compliance guides could in fact bring demand to around 0.5 – 2.5 Gt of CO2 per year in durable RDF, covering up to 30% of residual emissions. According to the analysis, some examples of such leverage could be:
- Carbon pricing mechanisms, including emissions trading systems and carbon border adjustments, which could drive the largest share of potential demand (1.3 Gt).
- Other significant levers include regulatory requirements in aviation (up to 400 megatonnes), maritime (up to 200 Mt) and energy (up to 200 Mt).
- Coverage of residual emissions by durable CDR is expected to be highest in Europe and North America (around 65%) and lowest in Asia-Pacific (around 20%).
- Addressing the remaining 70% of residual emissions, mainly located in Asia-Pacific, would require further reduction of emissions or further increase in demand for RDF.
An all-Italian virtuous example: BECCS technology
In Italy, a group of leading companies in the energy and agro-industrial sector, including Edison and Duferco Energia , have initiated the study to launch one of the first Bio-Energy with Carbon Capture and Storage (BECCS) projects in the country.
A pioneering initiative, which involves the capture of biogenic CO2 deriving from the production of biomethane, its liquefaction, transport and permanent offshore storage. Thanks to the technical feasibility analysis conducted with the support of the SIAD Group, through the subsidiary Tecno Project Industriale (TPI), specialized in the recovery of CO2, and the strategic consultancy of BCG , the project aims to identify the business to develop a 100% Italian supply chain, placing our country as a center of excellence in Europe and the world for biogenic CO2 removal and storage projects , resulting in the generation of high quality CO2 offset credits.
For the storage of biogenic CO2, we look to the Ravenna CCS project, operated by Eni and in joint venture with Snam, currently under development.
Given the innovative nature of the technology, to date there are few similar projects in Europe, such as the BECCS Stockholm project in Sweden and the Ørsted BECCS Project in Denmark.
The development of BECCS technology from biomethane in Italy represents a great opportunity, since it has the potential to remove up to 3 million tonnes of CO2 per year, equivalent to the annual emissions of approximately 1.7 million cars – assuming a production of 2.3 billion cubic meters of biomethane by 2026, in line with the “Biomethane Decree” approved in 2022.
“The development of BECCS technology represents an important opportunity for Italy in the fight against climate change, thanks to the ability to permanently remove CO2 from the atmosphere, achieving a “carbon negative” impact. The entire BECCS production chain ensures a low footprint also in terms of transport and logistics.” Explains Ferrante Benvenuti , Partner at BCG . “The technology would also allow the development of the voluntary carbon credit market, in which Italy could play a significant role, as well as the valorization of the Italian agricultural supply chain, thanks to the integration of biomethane production with local agricultural activities. A synergic approach that can improve the profitability of biomethane plants, while promoting sustainable practices in a leading sector of our country.”
The relevance of technology therefore lies in several elements:
- Negative net emissions . From the capture and permanent storage of CO2, BECCS technology is capable of generating a ” carbon negative ” impact, which contributes to the achievement of the ambitious Italian and European decarbonisation objectives.
- Voluntary Carbon Market . The technology stimulates the development of the voluntary carbon credit market in Italy, allowing the generation of high-quality, Made in Italy credits , which can make our country a reference supplier.
- Acceleration in renewable energy production . In the case of generation and sale of carbon credits, an improvement in the profitability of biomethane plants would be achieved and, consequently, an acceleration in their implementation, contributing to the decarbonization of the energy sector. It would also lead to greater energy autonomy, which would reduce the need for gas imports from other countries.
The potential of BECCS technology goes beyond biomethane and can be applied to all those areas where bioenergy is produced, such as waste-to-energy plants that are fueled by biomass.
