The non-farm payroll (NFP) report for June 2024, set to be released on 05 July 2024, is expected to show 265,000 job additions, above consensus expectations of 190,000 and slightly below last month’s reading of 272,000 job additions, according to GlobalData, a leading data and analytics company.
GlobalData’s Jobs indices are derived from a high frequency company job postings dataset, available in near real-time, and well suited to detect labor market trends.
Adarsh Jain, CFA, Director of Financial Markets at GlobalData, comments: “GlobalData’s Closed Jobs Index, a proxy for net additions to payrolls, has been strong in the last four months and recorded 25% month-on-month (M-o-M) growth in June 2024, with retail, pharma and food services being major drivers of net job additions.”
However, GlobalData’s Posted Jobs Index, which measures job openings, continued to fall in June 2024, registering a M-o-M decline of 15%. This is important, as a fall in posted jobs signals weaker job closures in the months ahead and consequently weaker net job additions or NFP.
Jain concludes: “As posted jobs reverse trend, going forward slowdown in US jobs will become more entrenched and find a sustainable equilibrium witnessed before the COVID-19 pandemic.”
