Modest growth in monthly economic index score despite declines in key indicators
The two primary measures of the ZEI — Economic Index Score and Economic Stability Index — both showed incremental gains for the month of August. This upward movement indicates that the US economy remains in expansion despite stronger headwinds including a more challenging job market, turbulent stock market and continued uncertainty. Specifically:
- Economic Index Score: Increased by 0.6 from July to 67.4 and is defined as “Active”, which is characterized by robust economic activity with healthy growth across various sectors. This is an acceleration from July, when the month-over-month increase was 0.3.
- Economic Stability Index: Increased by 0.3 from the previous quarter to 66.1 and is defined as Stable, which is defined as individuals having a steady income, allowing them to manage short-term financial disruptions with relative ease.
“The Zeta Economic Index continues to demonstrate the resilience of the US consumer, even in the face of economic headwinds,” said David A. Steinberg, Co-Founder, Chairman, and CEO of Zeta Global. “Our latest data reflects modest but steady growth, underscoring the adaptability of consumers as they navigate a challenging job market and ongoing uncertainties. At Zeta, we are committed to empowering businesses with the actionable intelligence they need to meet the demands of today’s consumer in this dynamic environment.”
Additional highlights from the ZEI:
- Mixed Consumer Behavior Reveals Diverging Spending Patterns: Recent data in the ZEI highlights a bifurcation of consumer spending patterns. Discretionary spending has surged, showing a notable 15% year-over-year increase, in-part attributed to back-to-school spending but also suggesting that many consumers remain willing to indulge in non-essential purchases despite ongoing economic uncertainties. In contrast, the New Mover Index tracking cohort activity has declined by 10% month-over-month, reflecting a growing caution.
- Job Market Sentiment Reflects Rising Uncertainty: Concerns about job stability are becoming more apparent, with the Job Market Sentiment Index dipping 4.6% compared to last year’s value at this time. This decline underscores an increasing sense of unease among workers as economic conditions continue to evolve.
- Automotive Sector Gains Momentum Amid Retail and Travel Challenges: The Automotive Index has climbed by 4.1 points since July, driven in part by aggressive dealer incentives aimed at clearing excess inventory ahead of the new model season. However, the Retail and Travel sectors are facing headwinds. The Retail Index has dropped 12.6 points month-over-month, attributed to early end to back-to-school shopping. The travel sector is expectedly experiencing a slowdown as summer vacations wind down, but still tracking above 2023 values by 7.55.0 points
The ZEI utilizes generative AI to analyze trillions of behavioral signals providing comprehensive scores that reflect economic sentiment, trends, and dynamics. Unlike surveys, this index utilizes over 20 proprietary inputs that recalibrate each month based on actual behavior, enhancing the understanding of a key driver of economic growth – consumer activity.
